Over the last several months we have seen several candidates rise and fall in the polls for the GOP. First we had Michelle Bachmann, then Rick Perry and now Hermain Cain. We also have had a couple people consistently around the 10% mark with Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich. The one person who has always been at or near the top has been Mitt Romney. The GOP seems desperate to put someone over instead of him but he just keeps on going. He looks more and more everyday like the eventual nominee. After seeing the most recent CNN debate it became clearly obvious to me that if the GOP wants to win in 2012 they need to throw their support behind Romney immediately.
Some will say what about Herman Cain? As I will with all the other potential nominees I will point out why Hermain Cain is just the flavor of the month and has no chance of beating Obama in 2012, which should be the GOP's ultimate goal. First, Herman Cain has no experience. Sure he has business experience, but he has not political and most importantly foreign policy experience. The GOP has hammered Obama on being way too inexperienced for the job. So, why put forth a guy who has never held political office? Secondly, he is weak on foreign policy, which is the nicest way I can put it. He actually stated in an interview that he would be open to negotiating with terrorists. He also has said he would not allow a Muslim to serve in his cabinet, but he later changed his mind. Many GOPers aren't going to like that soft aproach and his ability to change his mind on a whim. Finally, picking up on the changing of his mind issue, Cain can't stick to a plan for more than a week. He flip flops left and right. He comes out soft on abortion and then tries to change his opinion to sound more conservative. He comes out soft on terror and tries to change his opinion to sound more conservative. Then, in regards to his 9-9-9 plan, he changes it to 9-0-9 for the poor to try and garner independent votes. He is all over the place and is dangerously close to dropping back into the single digits if he is not able to give a clear message. If he goes up against Obama he will get embarassed in a debate. He reminds me of Kerry in 04 without the experience. Obama already has an abundance if ammo to use so far against Cain should he win the nomination. One could see Cain providing much more ammo in the coming months. So, if you don't want Obama for a second term, I advise against voting for Cain.
Next, we have Rick Perry. He is were I predict Cain will be in a few months, tanking. He started off strong but when his record was brought up people abandoned ship. The biggest issue for me is the border issue. Giving free education to Illegals is not just unpopular with the GOP, it is unpopular with both parties. It makes him look like he is providing a sanctuary state, which conservatives don't like. However, due to his outspoken religious beliefs he is unlikely to garner support from the moderates in the GOP. The combination of both make him a man without a base, which is tough to run on. If he gets the nomination Obama will steal the independents from him due to his outspoken religious views. Also the conservatives will have a hard time backing him due to his immigration stance. That combined with his comparisons to Bush, which will only hurt him, and you have a recipe for a landslide defeat should he be the nominee.
Then we have Bachmann. Sure she is popular with the tea party and people like Sean Hannity, but middle of the road America doesn't seem to be too fond of Bachmann. Here is why she can't beat Obama. First, she is too polarizing. She is ultra conservative, which is great in some states but will make it hard to win battleground states like Ohio and Florida. She will struggle to gain independents and her views on issues like gay marriage and abortion are not in line with independents. Also, she is a gaffe machine. She has made more gaffes in 6 months than Biden has in 3 years. She misquotes facts and comes off as unintelligent. She reminds many moderates of Sarah Palin, which in case you didn't know is about as bad as being like Bush. Also, her partisan approach in the house to dealing with issues such as the deficit shows lack of leadership. Saying you wil vote no for something without a plan that actually has a chance of passing is considered stalling. I have yet to hear a great idea from her. When put to the test in front of the nation she will have a hard time pointing out Obama's failures since she has no plans to fix them other than just undoing what Obama has done, which is not going to be enough to beat Obama.
The next person I am putting on here I actually think has the best chance besides Romney to beat Obama, However due to his past would most likely lose to Obama in a general election. I am referring to Newt Gingrich. He is by far the best debater in the GOP field. He talks with a load of intelligence and even gets respect from the left for his track record of getting stuff done in a bipartisan way, as he was able to do as Speaker. He also shows class in refusing to degrade the other GOP candidates, something that I think was key in John Mccain winning the nomination in 2008. But like McCain he has a past, only much worse than McCain. McCain had personal issues after he came back from the War, however didn't get as much flack for it since he was a war hero. Newt won't be so lucky. He is viewed as a hypocrite for how he pursued Clinton during the Lewinsky scandal while he himself was doing far worse. He has been married 3 times and the infidelity issue will likely hurt him with conservatives and tea partiers. His past is too big of a mountain to climb and Obama will likely attack him on his character, which is something a solid candidate should not have to defend.
Now for the oddball of the group. Ron Paul is like that weird uncle who talks about life and only makes since half the time. Ron Paul has some ideas that many conservatives and tea partiers like. His stances on fiscal issues like balancing the budget and his hatred of the Federal Reserve is popular on the right. However, he loses all credibility when he starts going off about legalizing drugs. That is an issue that cause most people on the right to tune him out. Then you combine that with his idea to allow Iran to have Nukes and he loses on credibility. To most people he is nothing more than a sideshow and while he has a base of around 10% of the GOP, I find it hard to see that number increase. Any candidate who looks softer than Obama on issues like Terror and Defense will have no shot at winning the GOP primary or getting any independent support. However, I would be willing to bet he will be the last one to give up and will probably consider a 3rd party run as well.
So now that I have pointed out the major flaws in all the GOP candidates I will show you why Romney should be the GOP nominee and why he has a shot of beating Obama. First, He has no major issues that would make him unelectable. Only a small portion fault him for RomneyCare since many states have similar health care programs. He has said it would only work at the state level and has been pretty consistent. Also, how can Obama tout a healthcare plan, his biggest achievement domestically, that he admits he took from Romney? Also Romney can pull the white collar vote with his business successes. If he is smart he would select a VP in either Rubio or Christie. Both would make battleground states easier to win and Rubio would help gain Florida,a key to any GOP win in the 2012 election. Some also will point to his faith as an issue. However, I don't see evangelicals making the same mistake of not getting behind a candidate like that did Mccain in 08 so he should be able to avoid the Mormon issue. When I look at him debate I say to myself that he looks presidential. Few could say that about the other candidates. He takes shots and seems to always win when challenged. Just ask Pawlenty, Bachmann, and Perry how successful they were when they tried to unseat him as the frontrunner.
In conclusion, whether the GOP wants to admit it or not Romney is the best bet. He also is the most likely to win. So the GOP has two choices. Either get on the bandwagon or take a chance with someone who has little to no chance of winning in 2012. The choice the GOP makes in the coming months with decide who is in the White House in 2013. I will guarantee that if the GOP does not start to fully support Romney by years end and throws their support behind one of the other candidates, Obama will win Re-election in 2012. The choice is yours GOP.
